How Succedence Works

Technical documentation of our valuation algorithm, industry multiples, and risk adjustment methodology. No fluff—just the actual implementation.

Core Valuation Algorithm

Five-Step Process

1. Industry Classification

Maps business to one of 50+ predefined industries with NAICS codes. Falls back to "general_business" if unmatched.

Implementation: /lib/valuation/industry-multiples.ts

2. Financial Normalization

Converts raw financials to normalized SDE using: SDE = EBITDA + Owner Salary + Owner Benefits + Discretionary Expenses

Owner salary estimated by revenue tier when not provided ($50K to $200K range based on business size).

Implementation: /lib/valuation/financial-normalization.ts

3. Risk Adjustments

Applies 8 independent risk factors with documented adjustment ranges. Total adjustment capped at ±1.0x.

Implementation: /lib/valuation/risk-adjustments.ts

4. Multiple Application

Applies adjusted industry multiples to normalized financials. Generates low/mid/high range using industry volatility.

5. Tangible Asset Addition

Adds inventory + FF&E (fixtures, furniture, equipment) to multiple-based valuation for total enterprise value.

Industry Multiples Database

We maintain hardcoded multiples for 50+ industries based on BizBuySell and IBBA market data. These are static values updated quarterly, not live data feeds.

Example: HVAC Services

SDE Multiple:2.5x - 4.0x
EBITDA Multiple:3.5x - 6.0x
Revenue Multiple:0.5x - 1.0x
Volatility:Medium

Example: SaaS/Software

SDE Multiple:3.0x - 7.0x
EBITDA Multiple:5.0x - 12.0x
Revenue Multiple:2.0x - 8.0x
Volatility:High

Example: Coffee Shop

SDE Multiple:1.5x - 2.8x
EBITDA Multiple:2.5x - 4.5x
Revenue Multiple:0.35x - 0.7x
Volatility:Medium

Example: Professional Services

SDE Multiple:2.0x - 3.5x
EBITDA Multiple:3.0x - 5.5x
Revenue Multiple:0.4x - 0.9x
Volatility:Low

Risk Adjustment Factors

Eight independent factors that adjust base multiples. These reflect actual discount rates observed in transaction data and SBA lending criteria.

FactorRangeMultiple Impact
Customer Concentration0-100% (top 3 customers)-0.5x to +0.1x
Revenue Growth TrendDeclining to +25% CAGR-0.45x to +0.35x
Owner Dependency60+ hrs/week to <20 hrs-0.4x to +0.3x
Recurring Revenue0-100%-0.1x to +0.4x
Lease Risk<1 year to 10+ years remaining-0.45x to +0.2x
Business Age<3 years to 20+ years-0.3x to +0.2x
Employee CountSolo operator to 15+ employees-0.1x to +0.15x
Rent as % Revenue>15% to <5%-0.2x to +0.1x

SDE Size Premium/Discount: Additional adjustment based on business scale. Ranges from -0.4x (<$50K SDE micro-businesses) to +0.5x (>$1M SDE institutional quality). Total cumulative adjustment capped at ±1.0x.

Deal Quality Scoring

Six-factor weighted model that generates A-F grades (0-100 scale). Used for buyer matching and listing quality assessment.

Pricing Fairness

25%

Asking price vs. calculated mid valuation

Financial Trajectory

20%

Revenue growth trend + recurring revenue bonus

Concentration Risk

15%

Customer diversification (inverted scoring)

Operational Risk

15%

Owner hours, employee count, business age

Documentation Quality

10%

Completeness of provided data

Valuation Alignment

15%

Asking price position within range

Grade Thresholds

A
≥85
B
70-84
C
55-69
D
40-54
F
<40

Limitations & Disclaimers

To be clear about what Succedence is NOT:

  • Not a certified appraisal: This is an algorithmic estimate, not a professional business appraisal compliant with USPAP standards.
  • Not live market data: Industry multiples are hardcoded from quarterly IBBA/BizBuySell reports. Updated quarterly, not real-time.
  • Not machine learning: Pure rule-based algorithm with documented adjustment ranges. No black-box AI in core valuation.
  • No web scraping: URL parsing from listing platforms is currently a placeholder. Requires manual data entry.
  • Confidence reduction: Scores automatically reduced when data is incomplete (revenue-only method: -25 points, insufficient risk factors: -20 points).

All methodology code is available in /lib/valuation/ directory. Calculations are independently reproducible.

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